1. Standard Chartered: expected to cut interest rates by 50BP. If the economic data is still sluggish, it may actively ease monetary policy in the second quarter in order to return to the neutral rate faster. 2. ANZ Bank: expected tomorrow may be the last interest rate cut of 50 basis points. The risk of interest rate trough tends to be less than 3.5%. The statement is expected to show confidence in inflation. 3. Westpac Bank: expected to cut interest rates by 50BP. The pace may slow down after ...
1. 渣打银行:料降息50BP,如果经济数据仍然低迷,可能会在二季度积极地放松货币政策,以便更快恢复到中性利率。2. 澳新银行:料明天可能是最后一次降息50个基点,利率低谷的风险倾向于低于3.5%,声明料显示出对通胀温和的信心。3. 西太银行:料降息50BP,2月后步伐或放缓,但也有可能进一步降息以更快地降至中性利率,4月可能进一步降息50BP。4. 高盛集团:失业率达到5.1%的4年高点,再次表明将在上半年连续降息,料本月降息50BP,4月开始每次会议降息25BP。5. Kiwibank:对下半年经济复苏抱有希望,但需降息支持,联储今年需要将OCR降至3%,否则会对劳动力市场造成损害。6. 法兴银行:料降息50BP,四季度就业状况进一步走弱,失业率升至四年高点,利率在未来12个月内料将达到3.00%左右。7. 荷兰国际:糟糕的就业数据支持降息50BP,各项指标均反映经济疲软,美国贸易保护主义立场导致纽元/美元偏向看跌。8. 布朗兄弟哈里曼:消费者信心下跌,料再降息50个基点至3.75%,预计政策利率在未来12个月内将降至3.00%的底部。
On September 23rd, according to CME "Federal Reserve Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 49.0%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 51.0%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December is 25.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 50.0%; the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 24.4%. Last week's potential successor to the Federal Reserve chairp...
Gold Ten Futures Special Guantong Futures Comments: The current market's views on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 50bp are full of contradictions and differences, and there is no clear direction yet. This is also because after a major macro event, the market has different views on the disturbance of asset prices and the impact of the real economy. On the surface, overseas markets are reacting positively to this matter, while domestic markets are more interpreting in the direction of "...
With the Federal Reserve's September 2024 interest rate meeting to cut interest rates by 50bp resolution passed, mainstream financial marekt feedback is mixed: 1. Bank stocks rose across the board; 2. The two-year US Treasury yield fell by 8 basis points in the short term, and is now reported at 3.598%; S & P 500 futures rose 0.85%, Nasdaq futures rose 1.3%, and Dow futures rose 0.51%. 4. Spot gold returned to $2,560/ounce, up 0.03% in the day; 5. Crypto market within 12 hours, multiple orders l...
With the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 50bp at its September 2024 meeting, opinions were divided, but most of the feedback was positive. 1. Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell: will choose to accelerate or slow the pace of interest rate cuts based on actual market conditions. 2. Trump: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut shows that the US "economy is very bad"; 3. Vice President Harris: Good news for Americans who are under pressure from high prices. 4. Nationwide Chief ...
The Guosheng Macro team said that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50bp, slightly exceeding market expectations, but Powell's speech was hawkish, saying that this rate cut is not the norm. The dot plot shows another 50bp drop within the year, and the market expects another 75bp drop within the year. Combined with historical laws and asset performance after this meeting, this sharp interest rate cut should strengthen the market's concerns about the US economic recession; tend to think th...
In response to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 50bp, CICC issued a comment saying that the interest rate cut of 50bp was an unconventional start and partially exceeded market expectations. The 50bp cut was in line with expectations for CME interest rate futures, but it exceeded the forecasts of many Wall Street investment banks and was an "unconventional" start. Historically, interest rate cuts starting at 50bp have only occurred in times of economic or market emergency, such as the t...
On September 19, the Federal Reserve sharply cut interest rates by 50 basis points. US stocks closed down collectively on Wednesday. The Dow closed down about 102 points or 0.25%, the S & P 500 index fell 0.29%, and the Nasdaq index fell 0.31%. Intel (INTC. O) fell 3.26%, Trump Media Technology Group (DJT. O) fell 3.22%. Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 0.86%, NIO (NIO. N) fell 7.03%, XPeng Motors (XPEV. N) fell 4.49%, and Dingdong Maicai (DDL. N) fell 4.39%.